Those wacky North Koreans are once again upset with the US and South Korea for holding military exercises. Once again, they make threats about plunging the world into war. Not once have they done so but I remember the fable about the boy who cried "wolf!"
Although it is hard to take North Korea seriously, you have to remember it has the fifth largest army in the world (1.2 million), holds on to rugged, mountainous terrain and has nuclear weaponry, albeit somewhat primitive.
What worries me is a combination of North Korean insanity and China's increasing assertiveness. Just recently, the Chinese complained loudly about the US Navy holding excesses in the Yellow Sea. Washington moved them, claiming that the Chinese had nothing to do with the decision.
Then the Chinese unveiled their new missile, the Dong Feng 21D, capable of hitting aircraft carriers from 900 miles away.
North Korea is easier to ignore than China.
I have the feeling this little noted exchange is some sort of test the Chinese and North Koreans are running to get a feel for the US commitment to Northeast Asia. Given Obama's track record in anything so far, I can sense the confidence radiating from Beijing.
North Korea, as irritating as China finds Kim Il-Jong, is the perfect proxy to sting the US and scare Japan. Where does that leave South Korea?
A possible Chinese ally
What?
Yes, a possible Chinese ally. Think about it. What if China, much closer to Korea and growing both stronger and more assertive, offers Seoul the moribund North in exchange for an alliance with Asia's greatest power? Oil from Russia also becomes available and North Korea has lots of untapped natural resources.
A unified Chinese allied Korea becomes a natural bridge to Japan. If China has this in mind, then Seoul sees their choices are to be in the way or get on the winning team.
Tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan along with China itself holding a good chunk of America's debt, could the US fight off such a scenario?
Think about this, add the Yellow Sea "protests" into the equation and see what you come up with.
I hope the State Department is not asleep at the wheel on this.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100816/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_china_military
ReplyDeleteThis might fit it well with your theory