Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Germany rising?


For the 17th or 18th time, I read in the news that stocks rallied on impending deal/hope of solving the Greek debt crisis. It is not solved and it is not going away. The Eurozone is not going to become any kind of political union or superstate. It might turn into a German vassalage though.

All of the Euro bailouts have come straight out of Germany's pocket and Chancellor Angela Merkel has said there will be no more. Germany, located in the center of Europe, and possessing the continent's strongest economy is clearly the strongest country in the faltering EU. Without Germany, there is no European Union but with or without the European Union, there will be a Germany.

Germany has the lowest unemployment rate (6.6%) in the EU, an economy that is an interesting mix of industrial and financial, and seems to be developing an interesting relationship with Russia when it comes to oil. It kind of looks like 1880 all over again when Bismarck gave the Czar loans to modernize Russia and keep them from allying with France.

Some extremists start shouting about 1939 and "the Germans are coming!" but I can't see that happening. A possible swing rightward and a resurgence in patriotism but I don't see the swastika making a comeback.

Oddly, Angela Merkel may succeed where Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler failed. Germany may conquer Europe without firing a shot or even intending too do so. Greek, Spanish, Irish, and Italian debt is held by a lot of Germans and at some point, they will call in the markers. Deals will be made but with those come concessions. What sort of concessions will there be? I don't think the Germans are out to overrun Europe but it is looking like they will own a good piece of it.

Europe, with or without the EU, will continue to revolve around Germany. Europe's history is usually the story of a power vacuum in Germany or a Germanic attempt to expand in all directions, from the Romans to the Third Reich. Sometimes it was just migrations and others it was an attempt at conquest. Sometimes, historians hate to use this phrase, it "just happens". The law of unintended consequences can lead down roads no one even knew existed. Take a look at Europe's history in the 1860s and you will see what I mean.

I have heard from a lot of people that the European Union was formed not only to create a unified Europe but a European Germany. It might end up creating a German Europe. It just might be inevitable.

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