Friday, March 29, 2013

North Korea getting restless....

It is not unusual to hear odd ball announcements and threats from North Korea but the latest seem particularly troubling....

Nominally a Chinese client state and subject to a lot of Russian influence, North Korea nontheless acts as a wild card, doing whatever it likes most of the time.  The recent bellicose behavior is cause for alarm though.

Consider this--Kim Jong-un is still only a year and a half into his reign so maybe there is some behind the scenes instability we are not aware of.  Whipping up anger at South Korea and the US is a good way to unite the people of North Korea and distract them from hunger.

He has to know that he can't win Korean War II

North Korea's military, while formidable, has no "staying power."

Within a few days, their supply lines, assuming they have not been obliterated by US airpower, will stop functioning since there will be no supplies to send.  North Korean forces will go straight for Seoul and do a lot of damage but they will be beaten back in the end.  Do you think China is going to intervene militarily like they did in 1950? And if Kim Jong-un is still in Pyongyang when it is over, how long will be remain in power?  Any official line about "winning" or "accomplishing the mission" will be contradicted by the many veterans coming home.

I don't see it happening.  North Korea has about a 1% of winning.  On the other hand, North Korea has never been blessed with sane leadership.

I hope this is just a case of typical nutcase North Korean leader primping for his generals or the population at large.

If not, you might want to stay out of Seoul for a while.

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