Monday, August 19, 2013

Civil War in Egypt?

Egypt appears to be spinning out of control and maybe into civil war.  The unrest has spread beyond Cairo and twenty-five police officers were ambushed in the Sinai.  This would make anything in Syria look like a walk in the park.

The oil sleazebags will probably use this as an excuse to raise oil prices, citing a threat to the Suez Canal.  The canal will be fine.  You can deflate that argument with four words --United States Sixth Fleet.  On the other hand, rational arguments do not seem to hold much water with fanatics, whether they wear turbans or suits. 

Now what does the US do about this?  I am not sure there is anything it can, or should, do.  Everything Washington gets mixed up in the Middle East, everything goes awry and the situation is worse than it was before.  That is the story with or without American involvement.  The Persians, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Abbasids, Mamelukes, and even Mongols found the region perplexing not to mention the more recent British and French adventures in the nineteenth and mid twentieth centuries.  The people living there probably can't figure it out either. It has been that way since 3500 BC and it is not changing anytime soon. 

Furthermore, the people on the ground in Egypt don't like Americans. Hillary Clinton found out when her car was pelted with moldy fruit.  They see the US as backing and keeping  Mubarak  in power all those years and the Egyptian people, however they feel about the Moslem Brotherhood, at least see them as Egyptian. 

I am worried that fears over the Suez Canal can drag the US into a Middle Eastern shootout quicker than anything in Syria.  Of course, the oil industry would love to see that.  So would defense contractors. 

And you wonder why aliens don't make contact with humanity.....

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