Watching China

 

As the United States preoccupies itself with gender pronouns, China starts to look at Taiwan.

In 1973 , Egypt had many military maneuvers, one after another, and suddenly attacked across the Suez Canal and gained operational surprise.  Egypt did not win, but caused the Israelis a lot of damage and won some prestige or Egyptian arms.

China holds drills ad infinitum around Taiwan and one wonders i the exercise turns real one day.  It seems obvious that plan is to surround the island with naval might and strangle it before making a massive landing that would make Normandy, 1944 look like preseason football. 

The best time to attack across the strait is April or October. 

I am sure that when the attack comes, it will be a story after some piece about drag queens at a library.

What will America do?

Not sure.

The US says it is committed to Taiwan's defense, but with an unstable domestic scene and a woefully unprepared military, confidence is not high.  On the plus side, China's military has no real world experience.  

On the other hand, declining hegemons do tend to focus on outside enemies when domestic politics become unstable.  Will a preemptive strike against China be in the works in a desperate attempt by DC to unite the country. 

Either way, it till be the biggest event of the twenty-first century.

Happy Real Easter :-P

 

Happy Orthodox Easter!  Same holiday, different day!  Red eggs and discount candy for everyone!

Back to the issues of the day tomorrow!

Happy Easter--Western Version :-)

 

Thucyidides Trap--21st century version...

 

In the Fourth Century BC, Ancient Greece plunged into the Peloponnesian War as Sparta, according to Thucydides, "feared the rising power of Athens".  This sort of circumstance is known as the "Thucydides Trap".  Allison Graham, founder of the phrase, has identified this sort of international situation dozens of times.

Back in 432 BC, Sparta was the strongest city-state in Greece, and Athens was closing the gap.  The Peloponesian War started when Corinth, #3 in Greece, ran into trouble with Epimndamus and called for Sparta as their opponents called for Athenian aid.

Sparta and Athens plunged into war and a twenty-seven year nightmare ensued.

This has happened several times and you see a patter.  The status quo power (#1) is afraid of a rising power (#2) and allies with the third leading power to defeat the rising power.

In 1800, Britain fought off Revolutionary France with the aid of the rest of Europe, led by Prussia and Russia. 

By 1900, Britain, the leading power in the world at the time, had a challenge from a rising Germany and called on France to head off the challenge.  It would happen again in 1939.  The Cold War saw the United States as the status quo power holding off a Soviet Union determined to spread communism and America turned to help from the British and NATO to finally put that challenge down.

In 2023, America faces a rising China.  Logically, the #3 power of the world, Russia, should be allied with the US to hold off Beijing.  

However, the doddering idiots in the White House have created an unprecedented situation where the second and third leading powers are allied to fighting US influence. The US has many smaller allies to help out in the event of conflict and two major oceans as shields, so while a loss is possible, destruction is not--unless everything goes nuclear,  Then everyone loses.

Another thing going against the US is the internal instability that seems to be getting worse.As Loki said in an Avengers movie, "How can you fight me when you are fighting each other?"  Or something like that. 

Fortunately, China, for all of its shouting, cannot cross the Taiwan Strait and Russia is having lots of trouble in Ukraine.  Given the underwhelming US performance in Iraq and defeat in Afghanistan, it seems all sides are hobbled by incompetence. 

I would laugh but each one of these leaders have nuclear weapons at their disposal.

What a stupid planet.

This is why aliens don't visit.