In 1973 , Egypt had many military maneuvers, one after another, and suddenly attacked across the Suez Canal and gained operational surprise. Egypt did not win, but caused the Israelis a lot of damage and won some prestige or Egyptian arms.
China holds drills ad infinitum around Taiwan and one wonders i the exercise turns real one day. It seems obvious that plan is to surround the island with naval might and strangle it before making a massive landing that would make Normandy, 1944 look like preseason football.
The best time to attack across the strait is April or October.
I am sure that when the attack comes, it will be a story after some piece about drag queens at a library.
What will America do?
Not sure.
The US says it is committed to Taiwan's defense, but with an unstable domestic scene and a woefully unprepared military, confidence is not high. On the plus side, China's military has no real world experience.
On the other hand, declining hegemons do tend to focus on outside enemies when domestic politics become unstable. Will a preemptive strike against China be in the works in a desperate attempt by DC to unite the country.
Either way, it till be the biggest event of the twenty-first century.
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