Watching the Middle East

 

It looks like the long-awaited Israeli attack into Gaza has begun.

It is not going to the be a huge all-out attack over in a couple of days.  There are tunnels and built up areas, not to mention hostages to complicate the situation.  It looks like a 21st century Stalingrad is about to occur.  It will be nasty and bloody.

And a long campaign

 And there seems to be the possibility of a second front on the Israeli-Lebanon border as Hezbollah is launching raids and missiles..

I don't think Iran will be directly involved.

Iran has only 500 some odd missiles and the attack profile is not promising for any inbound Iranian missiles.  And I don't see Iranian armor or infantry showing up in Lebanon in any great numbers.  Armored formations would be seen crossing Iraq or Syria.

The course of events seems obvious, so I can't help but think there is something else in the works.  

I keep looking at the undefended US southern border and hope something has not come across.

Time will tell.

Second Yom Kippur War?

 

If you don't learn from history, it will repeat!

On Yom Kippur 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack that caught Israel off guard.

In 2023, fifty years later, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority caught Israel off guard with a surprise attack.

 Everyone knows that extremists operate around anniversary.  I would think that the fiftieth anniversary  of the 1973 attack that saw the Arab nations fight the Israelis to a standstill would warrant some extra attention from the vaunted Israeli intelligence agencies.  The CIA missed it too, but when US intel agencies are busy spying on their own citizens, some things will slide by...

Nearly 5000 missiles (maybe 7500) slammed into Israel from Gaza, killing hundreds.  How did they miss this?

There have been attacks on civilians and war crimes.  Any call for a cease-fire are going to fall on deaf ears.  This has been described as an Israeli 9/11 or Pearl Harbor and the Israelis always hit back and hit back hard.

The question now is if Gaza turns into a Middle Eastern Stalingrad.  I don't think the Israelis are going to hit some targets and move on.  Too much blood has been shed and the reserves are called up.

This is going to be a major war.

Clearly, Hamas has some help in pulling this off, definitely from Iran and with shelling coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon over Israel's northern border, this war might spread.  Middle Eastern wars have a way of escalating fairly quickly.

I am not sure what Hamas goal here is.  They know the Israelis are going to hit with everything they have.  There must be more in store other than house to house fighting that might, from a Hamas view, might end in a draw.

Are other nations going to get involved?

Watch that northern border and watch what happens in Egypt.

Egypt's government might need an opponent to unify the country.  Usually that can mean an attack against someone from the outside. Spreading your opponent out over multiple fronts is usually a good strategy.

It is about to get interesting.