As the world turns...100 years later

A century ago this weekend, the Austrian Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb nationalist named Gavrilo Princip.  It kicked off the First World War, which would lead to the Second World War, then the Cold War, and here we are today.

Back in 1914, the Great Powers were jockeying for position in the Balkans, the powder keg of Europe, and essentially, the world.  Austria and Serbia got into it, Russia threatened Austria, Germany backed the Austrians, the French backed the Russians, and the British told France they had their back.  You can see how small nations got the ball rolling and how it pulled in larger ones.

Exactly a century later, the Middle East looks like the Balkans and this century's Great Powers are tied up in the Middle East and it looks like history has a good chance of repeating itself.  The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), declared itself The Caliphate (or just The Islamic State, if you prefer) and they see ready to pick up where the the Umayyad and Abbasid  Caliphates left off.

The US send 300 "advisors" to help the flagging Iraqi army and now another 200 are on the way.  Can you say "Vietnam", boys and girls?

Russia just sold Iraq some MiG fighters and they are sending "military experts" to help that same flagging Iraqi army.

I am not sure if China is mixed up in this yet, but they may use US preoccupation there to stir up mischief somewhere else.

I don't know why CNN keeps calling it the Iraqi-Syrian border.  That line in the desert that looked good to some guy in London back in the 1920s, is not there anymore.  Wishful thinking?  Hoping it all goes away? 

No, those ISIS guys are very real indeed.

Just as real as those Serbs shooting the Archduke in Sarajevo  a hundred years ago.

The Islamic State is not concerned about 1914.  They are looking further back, as you can see by their map.  It looks like it came straight out of 750 AD.  If you don't think they can do some serious damage, just consider what ISIS was a couple of months ago.

Austria did not think much of the Serbian Army either and not one, but two invasions failed before the third finally succeeded with a lot of German help.  By that time, it was 1915 and World War I was well under way.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

And there is a lot of mass illiteracy in the Middle East...

Iraq 3.0?

US soldiers going back in Iraq?

President Obama announced that the United States was considering sending 300 US "advisers" to help the Iraqi government deal with an ISIS surging towards Baghdad.

Isn't this how Vietnam started?

Maybe it is time to consider that maybe Iraq is an artificial construction and is not fated to survive.  There is a massive Shia-Sunni split and let us not forget the Kurds to the north.  The whole thing might have looked good to diplomats after the First World War, it does not work very well in reality.

The simple truth of the matter is that it does not appear anything will work.

Back in 1991, the US had Saddam Hussein on the ropes and let him off the hook. The rationale was that an occupation and construction of a new government would entail a lengthy occupation and guerrilla warfare.

For some reason in 2003, that suddenly seemed OK as the US plunged in looking for weapons of mass destruction that weren't there and engaged in a long occupation, fighting guerrillas and constructing a new government.

That government is as dictatorial as Hussein ever was.

And this came after the US left in 2011 after eight years of fighting and 4,500 American lives.

Now, the whole thing is about to come crashing down, bearing an eerier resemblance to South Vietnam,circa 1975.  I wonder if the helicopters are ready to take off from the rooftops again.

The administration is trying to calm everyone by telling anyone who will listen that they are aware of the danger of mission creep (Somalia, 1993). As you can see from history, these things take a life of their own.  Plus, air strikes will hurt ISIS, but not stop it.

It is unlikely that ISIS will take Baghdad. It is a huge city and there are large Shia populations immediately south.  What seems to be happening is a de facto partition with a Sunni north (minus the Kurds) and a Shia south.  Combined with ISIS allies (other units?) in Syria, there might be a new country in the beginning stages.  Not a very nice one, but at least it is isolated.  Given Middle Eastern history, it will collapse on its own.

Like Iraq.

Rebels in Syria have US weapons.  Those weapons are making their way across the desert to ISIS in Iraq.  If US forces are in Iraq (again!), those weapons, supplied by the US government, will be used against US soldiers.

This situation is ridiculous and tragic.  If it were not caked over in human blood, it would be a comedy.

Forget Iraq.  We have done enough.

June 6, 1944

The liberation of Europe began on this day seventy years ago.

May we have the same strength and fortitude to face future challenges.