Iraq 3.0?

US soldiers going back in Iraq?

President Obama announced that the United States was considering sending 300 US "advisers" to help the Iraqi government deal with an ISIS surging towards Baghdad.

Isn't this how Vietnam started?

Maybe it is time to consider that maybe Iraq is an artificial construction and is not fated to survive.  There is a massive Shia-Sunni split and let us not forget the Kurds to the north.  The whole thing might have looked good to diplomats after the First World War, it does not work very well in reality.

The simple truth of the matter is that it does not appear anything will work.

Back in 1991, the US had Saddam Hussein on the ropes and let him off the hook. The rationale was that an occupation and construction of a new government would entail a lengthy occupation and guerrilla warfare.

For some reason in 2003, that suddenly seemed OK as the US plunged in looking for weapons of mass destruction that weren't there and engaged in a long occupation, fighting guerrillas and constructing a new government.

That government is as dictatorial as Hussein ever was.

And this came after the US left in 2011 after eight years of fighting and 4,500 American lives.

Now, the whole thing is about to come crashing down, bearing an eerier resemblance to South Vietnam,circa 1975.  I wonder if the helicopters are ready to take off from the rooftops again.

The administration is trying to calm everyone by telling anyone who will listen that they are aware of the danger of mission creep (Somalia, 1993). As you can see from history, these things take a life of their own.  Plus, air strikes will hurt ISIS, but not stop it.

It is unlikely that ISIS will take Baghdad. It is a huge city and there are large Shia populations immediately south.  What seems to be happening is a de facto partition with a Sunni north (minus the Kurds) and a Shia south.  Combined with ISIS allies (other units?) in Syria, there might be a new country in the beginning stages.  Not a very nice one, but at least it is isolated.  Given Middle Eastern history, it will collapse on its own.

Like Iraq.

Rebels in Syria have US weapons.  Those weapons are making their way across the desert to ISIS in Iraq.  If US forces are in Iraq (again!), those weapons, supplied by the US government, will be used against US soldiers.

This situation is ridiculous and tragic.  If it were not caked over in human blood, it would be a comedy.

Forget Iraq.  We have done enough.