As the world turns...100 years later

A century ago this weekend, the Austrian Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb nationalist named Gavrilo Princip.  It kicked off the First World War, which would lead to the Second World War, then the Cold War, and here we are today.

Back in 1914, the Great Powers were jockeying for position in the Balkans, the powder keg of Europe, and essentially, the world.  Austria and Serbia got into it, Russia threatened Austria, Germany backed the Austrians, the French backed the Russians, and the British told France they had their back.  You can see how small nations got the ball rolling and how it pulled in larger ones.

Exactly a century later, the Middle East looks like the Balkans and this century's Great Powers are tied up in the Middle East and it looks like history has a good chance of repeating itself.  The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), declared itself The Caliphate (or just The Islamic State, if you prefer) and they see ready to pick up where the the Umayyad and Abbasid  Caliphates left off.

The US send 300 "advisors" to help the flagging Iraqi army and now another 200 are on the way.  Can you say "Vietnam", boys and girls?

Russia just sold Iraq some MiG fighters and they are sending "military experts" to help that same flagging Iraqi army.

I am not sure if China is mixed up in this yet, but they may use US preoccupation there to stir up mischief somewhere else.

I don't know why CNN keeps calling it the Iraqi-Syrian border.  That line in the desert that looked good to some guy in London back in the 1920s, is not there anymore.  Wishful thinking?  Hoping it all goes away? 

No, those ISIS guys are very real indeed.

Just as real as those Serbs shooting the Archduke in Sarajevo  a hundred years ago.

The Islamic State is not concerned about 1914.  They are looking further back, as you can see by their map.  It looks like it came straight out of 750 AD.  If you don't think they can do some serious damage, just consider what ISIS was a couple of months ago.

Austria did not think much of the Serbian Army either and not one, but two invasions failed before the third finally succeeded with a lot of German help.  By that time, it was 1915 and World War I was well under way.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

And there is a lot of mass illiteracy in the Middle East...