The Thucydides Trap

I was reading about the increasing rivalry in the Pacific between the US and China and Graham Alison wrote about his concern about the United States falling into what he called "The Thucydides Trap."

In 431 BC, Sparta went to war with Athens, plunging Greece into the Peloponnesian War.  Thucydides wrote in History of the Peloponnesian War, that the war began because the Spartans feared the rising power of Athens and feared being surpassed.  This has happened before and it will again.  There is usually a naval component to this phenomenon as well.

Sparta did not have a navy and fought Athens to an unproductive standstill before building its own navy and eventually triumphing in 404 BC.  Later, the Romans faced this same dilemma facing off with Carthage.  Both sides were afraid of the other in that one.

Napoleon hijacked the French Revolution to build his own empire.  Britain led the coalition to stop him.  The French (OK, Corsican) emperor drove all before him, but could not cross the English Channel.  Then came Waterloo.

In the twentieth century, two very different German leaders--Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler--found themselves in the same shoes.  You could even put the Union and Confederacy in this construct.

Today we see the US and China posturing in the Pacific.  If Thucydides has taught us anything, it is to remember that (1) human nature does not change, (2) navies cost more than ground forces, and (3) you need a navy to be a world power.

In 2016 AD, China is regarded as the rising power while the US wants to preserve the status quo. China is building a navy, but the US refused to budge off of the Asian littoral.  Some have proposed accomidating China by giving them the South China Sea.

Will China be satisfied with that?  Will the US even consider that course of action?  Think about Thucydides and then answer those questions.

The Thucydides trap has happened before and it will happen again in the future.

After all, the Federation was worried about an expanding Klingon Empire in the last Star Trek movie.

Personally, I am more of an Aliens vs Predator type of guy.