Fall of ISIS or Fourth Wave Terrorism?

Iraqi military advancing

Raqqa, the capital of the Islamic State, the self-proclaimed Islamic Caliphate, fell to Iraqi and Kurdish ground forces with considerable help from US air power and Special Forces.  This is a good thing--but will it matter?

Time and time again, terrorist havens have fallen and then it springs up somewhere else like the mythical Hydra.  Sometimes it is like punching holes in water.  The question is where it will reappear.

ISIS might have been crushed in Iraq,but it has satellite loyalists in other parts of the world like the Sahara nations and Libya. This battle might be over,but there is another about break loose.  And it will be in another form, if not now, definitely in the near future.

The first wave of Islamic terrorism was in the 1970s and early 1980s.  It tended to strike mainly in the Middle East against Israel and Western interests in the region, supplemented by occasional attacks in Europe against civilian targets.

The second wave was in the late 1990s with the establishment of a friendly government willing to give al-Qieda sanctuary.  The Taliban of Afghanistan was a willing and enthusiastic host.  This second wave pulled off the worst terror attack in history--9/11.

It also provoked a massive response as US forces overran Afghanistan in a grinding campaign that continues to this day.

That led to the third wave, a  terror group establishing its own country.  ISIS eclipsed al-Qieda in 2014 with the establishment of its Caliphate in northern Iraq.  From here, ISIS engaged in all out conventional warfare against both Syria,NATO, Iraq and at times, Russia.  It also launched or inspired attack in Europe and the US itself.

The next wave is in place and it is scarier--it is in Europe itself, forming in the middle of nations who brought in "refugees".Watch for some European nation to begin to shake apart in a civil war and watch for the reaction inside that country as Islamic insurgents do battle with flaccid governments who will be targeted by both Moslem and patriots, who will soon go after each other.

The 21st century history of Europe is going to be way too interesting.