No one seems interested in intervention unlike the case with Libya last year so that is at least one good development. A billion dollars and several months of uncoordinated air attacks resulted in the replacement of Khaddafi with what appears to be the North African version of the Taliban. NATO and the US appear to want to avoid running down that road again.
Plus there is no oil.
Syria is essentially the property of the Assad family and they have dealt with revolts before though not for a while (1970) and Israel has been an active enemy for all factions to unite against. The Israelis are staying quiet this time and there is a big battle brewing in Aleppo. That might be the turning point in what many are correctly calling a civil war.
Russia and the US have been at loggerheads again and this crisis has them on opposite sides. Russia is sending arms and perhaps money to Bashir Assad while the US is providing moral support to the rebels while attempting to ascertain who they are exactly.
At least it is an improvement over last year's badly thought out Libyan adventure.
It is hard to say definitively what will happen if the Assad dynasty falls but Middle Eastern history seems to indicate an answer of "not much."
If Libya is any guide, some other conservative government will take power and it will certainly be anti-Israeli. They will probably use the Israelis as a scapegoat to unite the country but I don't think they will try to take back the Golan Heights...at least not immediately. In other words, it will be hard to tell the difference between the current Syrian goverment and any replacement. Assad may even offer amnesty and include the rebels in the government.
No comments:
Post a Comment