China climbs the moutain

 

The rise of China is going to be the geopolitical story of this century, maybe THE story of this century.  It has been relentless, unapologetic, and historically almost unprecedented in its speed.  For a country that is supposedly communist, it has adapted to capitalism remarkably well..

China has its issues, particularly with a huge population that will inevitably age.  That, however, is not a problem at this moment.  Right now, China has penetrated its main rival, the United States, in many areas and has brought the world's largest country, Russia, into a formal alliance.

China has been on the top of the international heap for most of its existence. We have lived in in an era where China has not been the most powerful nation on the planet, which is a bit of an anomaly.   

It seems that China has decided to fix that.

China's recent rise is powered by the memory of humiliation visited upon the Celestial Kingdoms by Western powers.  Apparently this was more galling than the Mongol conquest. Nonetheless, after retaking Hong Kong and Macau, China feels that Taiwan is next.  The US alliance with the offshore island, a remnant of Nationalist China and unfinished business from the Chinese civil war in 1949. 

China has set a target date of 2049 to become the world's more powerful nation.  With an economy that seems primed to over take the US by 2023 and a navy that is growth seeming exponentially, it might achieve its goal earlier that that.   

With the US in the middle of internal turmoil and what seems to be a weakening will, China will probe out into the South China Sea and use that to break out into the Pacific toward what is called the Second Island Chain.  As you have probably guessed, the First Island Chain is Taiwan.

There are some interesting events on the horizon.

Time for a new US foreign policy

 

The United States has essentially been pursuing the same foreign policy since about 1950, or even a bit further back to the end of the Second World War if you really want to get technical about it.  Old habits die hard, but when you are twenty plus years into a new century, it might really be a good idea to kick the tires of your foreign policy and maybe get an oil change.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, America was trying to focus on an enemy that was not there.  President Clinton squandered the "peace dividend" after the Cold War, expanding a NATO that was not really needed, taking a confrontational role with anything on the horizon, and trying to shoehorn Saddam Hussein's Iraq into the role vacated by the Soviet collapse.

Then after the horrifying events of 9/11, "Islamic extremism" was used as the villain that was missing and President Bush embarked on a series of events that led to the US floundering in Afghanistan, pursuing mirages in Iraq,  launching missile strikes in Yemen, destroying Libya for no discernible purpose, and utterly failing to remove Assad from Syria. After all of the destruction and misery visited upon people who did nothing to us, the US is trying to recast Russia as the menace to Europe while not really sure what to do about the real threat--China.  And of course, many wonder why American servicemen are spread across the globe on hundreds of bases on every continent except possibly Antarctica.  The US armed forces have no business on the Syrian-Iraqi border while the US-Mexican border remains unguarded. 

Simple geography shows that the United States cannot fight two major wars at the same time while handing a contingency somewhere else, a grand strategy that dates back to the 1960s.  With problems here at home, the task facing the US armed forces proves even more daunting.  Some may use this an excuse to pump up the $800 billion dollar Pentagon budget, but I advise hitting the breaks on that line of thought. 

We shell out $800 billion a year and have yet to decisively win a war this century or at the very least, accomplish some sort of meaningful objective.  Not to mention, redirecting a few billion elsewhere can do wonders for our crumbling infrastructure. Or repair some damage from self-inflicted damage from idiotic COVID lockdowns. 

I suggest maybe not antagonizing Russia since its military has the world's largest nuclear arsenal.  I also think we can reach an accommodation with China while not abandoning our ally Taiwan.  And reducing, or even eliminating, our ground presence in the Middle East will do wonders for America's image there.

North Korea is, well, North Korea.  I can see the reason for leaving some US forces in South Korea.

I am not sure our political leadership is up to any sort of challenge, but the upcoming US-Russian summit in Geneva might be a ray of hope.  After all, Reagan and Gorbachev met there in 1985, leading to more summits in both Moscow and Washington and even led to the reduction of nuclear weapons arsenals on both sides.

And tell our idiot media to try to be optimistic for a change!

Afghanistan wrecks another army

 

The British fought in Afghanistan throughout the Nineteenth Century to safeguard the British Raj of India and left, determined to never mention that country's name ever again.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to prop up a failing Communist government and ten years later withdrew without even looking over their shoulders.

Then it was time for the United States, perhaps having the best justification for invading after the 9/11 attacks, to plunge into the graveyard of empires in pursuit of Osama Bib Laden.

The original plan was to go in with about 30,000 troops, overthrow the Taliban and get Bin Laden,  If the Bin Laden hunt did not workout, the regular soldiers would be pulled out in about six months and then Special Forces would continue the hunt and the Afghan people would not even know they were there.

Instead, the US has spent two decades chasing shadows trying to create a "new" Afghanistan.

The US had the perfect excuse to leave on May 1, 2011 when Bin Laden was finally killed.  The United States could have been the first country to invade and leave under something like good circumstances.  As usual, "mission creep" made its way into and everything went off the rails.

Ten years after the perfect reason to leave--and accomplishment of the primary mission--the US was supposed to finally leave.  An agreement had been reached with the Taliban and we would see if the new Afghan Army would hold off the Taliban or would it perform an imitation of ARVN collapsing in 1975.

Then pushed the withdrawal date to September 11, 2021.  In other words, every US solider in the country just became a target for an angry Taliban thinking the Americans would be gone.  And what are those soldiers putting their lives on the line for now?  

PR?

May 1 and the anniversary of Bin Laden's death would have worked better.

With out exceptionally poor quality of leadership, I shudder to think of what other missteps they will take.

Happy Easter! (Western version :-P )

 

HAPPY EASTER!  The Western version anyway :-P

Happy Greek Indendence Day!!!

 

The East Wind blows into Alaska

 

Last week, the world watched China's foreign minister lecture the US Secretary of State about human rights violations on US soil and had the temerity to tell Anthony Bliken that the "United States does not have the qualification that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength."to his face.  From the head of the State Department was silence.  

It was a moment that let the world know another superpower was taking the stage.

China is not stuck in unending wars, has a functioning economy, and a government committed to advancing the nation's interests.    By contrast the United States is stuck in the Middle East, has destroyed its own economy and has a government that has opened the southern border, seemingly committed to eventually destroying itself.  

The worst part was where the Chinese made the observation that "many Americans had no faith in democracy."

After the Supreme Court's refusal to even hear one election challenge, this does not come as a surprise. Also, the ham handed and uncoordinated way several states handled the pandemic, now fading away, did not help build any confidence either.

And the widespread academic discrimination against Asians, usually of Chinese descent, has not gone unnoticed by Beijing.

I have not started learning Mandarin on Duolingo yet, so I still have some faith.

After all, the last four letters of American is "I CAN."

Go forth and conquer!

Tear down this wall!

 

So, the politicians in DC continue to hide behind a "temporary" wall that was supposed to come down in mid-March.  Now, it appears it will stay up until September.

Does this look like a free democratic government to you?

Imaginary threats are created as our (?) alleged government continues to hide.  

In 1987, Ronald Reagan challenged Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down this wall" as the Berlin Wall was build to keep East Germans from escaping their country.  

In 2021, the US government puts up a fence, with razor wire, to keep out threats that are not there as the southern border is opened to illegal immigrants carrying disease in the middle of a pandemic.

What is the all-powerful US government afraid of?  With all of its power, it must rely on fences and National Guardmen who do not want to be there because the all powerful government is afraid.

I was not impressed with East Germany.

I am not impressed with today's DC.

Both look and act the same.  Both are headed for the same place.

No great loss. 

Hopefully tomorrow's DC has a bit of common sense.

Just a little would be nice.