Iraq 3.0?

US soldiers going back in Iraq?

President Obama announced that the United States was considering sending 300 US "advisers" to help the Iraqi government deal with an ISIS surging towards Baghdad.

Isn't this how Vietnam started?

Maybe it is time to consider that maybe Iraq is an artificial construction and is not fated to survive.  There is a massive Shia-Sunni split and let us not forget the Kurds to the north.  The whole thing might have looked good to diplomats after the First World War, it does not work very well in reality.

The simple truth of the matter is that it does not appear anything will work.

Back in 1991, the US had Saddam Hussein on the ropes and let him off the hook. The rationale was that an occupation and construction of a new government would entail a lengthy occupation and guerrilla warfare.

For some reason in 2003, that suddenly seemed OK as the US plunged in looking for weapons of mass destruction that weren't there and engaged in a long occupation, fighting guerrillas and constructing a new government.

That government is as dictatorial as Hussein ever was.

And this came after the US left in 2011 after eight years of fighting and 4,500 American lives.

Now, the whole thing is about to come crashing down, bearing an eerier resemblance to South Vietnam,circa 1975.  I wonder if the helicopters are ready to take off from the rooftops again.

The administration is trying to calm everyone by telling anyone who will listen that they are aware of the danger of mission creep (Somalia, 1993). As you can see from history, these things take a life of their own.  Plus, air strikes will hurt ISIS, but not stop it.

It is unlikely that ISIS will take Baghdad. It is a huge city and there are large Shia populations immediately south.  What seems to be happening is a de facto partition with a Sunni north (minus the Kurds) and a Shia south.  Combined with ISIS allies (other units?) in Syria, there might be a new country in the beginning stages.  Not a very nice one, but at least it is isolated.  Given Middle Eastern history, it will collapse on its own.

Like Iraq.

Rebels in Syria have US weapons.  Those weapons are making their way across the desert to ISIS in Iraq.  If US forces are in Iraq (again!), those weapons, supplied by the US government, will be used against US soldiers.

This situation is ridiculous and tragic.  If it were not caked over in human blood, it would be a comedy.

Forget Iraq.  We have done enough.

June 6, 1944

The liberation of Europe began on this day seventy years ago.

May we have the same strength and fortitude to face future challenges.

Two for one...

Eric Shinseki, former US Army Chief of Staff, and now former VA head, resigned in the wake of a growing scandal that has revealed the many problem of the Veterans Administration.  Aside from the horrible probability that at least 40 people have died waiting for treatment, there are reports that waiting lists have been fabricated to try and cover up more deaths. 

Part of Eric Shinseki's problem is that he spent his life in the military, where he gave orders and they were followed. In the anarchy that is civilian life, you are not even sure if the orders you issue are even heard.  That is why you follow up on things. "Fire and forget" never works.

Shinseki is lucky he is not going to jail.

Jay Carney clearly could not stomach spinning lies for the constant stream of scandals coming out of the Obama Administration.  He certainly gave his best effort, trying to restrict access and answering "I don't know" over and over.  Eventually, reporters started shouting over him and he figured it was time to go.

It is time for this entire administration to go.

Unfortunately, I don't know what will follow.

At least we have a couple of years to figure it out.

Eurasian Century?

Same picture because it is the same subject

Russia and China are becoming close pals and a lot of people are noticing.  The two countries just signed a $400 billion dollar natural gas deal (that looked doomed for a while), and they have military excersices planned.  The Russians do not seem too worried about being thrown out of the G8 for they seem more intersted in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).  They are also sending new aid to Iran for the reactor that is being constructed much to Israel and the US angst.

Russia is performing her own "pivot"--going East



The United States is $17 trillion in the hole, has cut its military back, and is pivoting toward Asia to confront a huge China while a not quite as huge but still pretty big Russia is resurgent in Europe. 

There is an old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times." 

It is getting a little too intersting

This article sums it up well:

 http://rt.com/op-edge/160160-pipelineistan-brics-economy-deals/

Just follow the pipelines......

May 12!

Always a big day on the Haas calender!

It has been a busy month but a pretty good one!

This whole Ukraine thing is taking a turn for the surreal.  I don't think World War III is going to break out but this could still have some repercussions in the long run.

May 12 is the day I defeated The Citadel, graduating with two degrees despite threats of court-martial and lots of underhanded behavior on their part that violated their Honor Code both in letter and spirit. 

Ask for forgiveness and you will have it.

On the other hand, I don't see them doing that although they keep begging me for money.

I am not holding a grudge.

After all, I won :-)

Happy Easter!

HAPPY EASTER!

Russian-Chinese concert?

Between Russia's annexation of the Crimea and China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and the Pacific in general, you begin to wonder if Moscow and Beijing are coordinating their actions.   Toss in Iran and you have another Axis powers.  If India remains faithful to their BRIC partners, you will have nearly a third of the world's population and a good chunk of its oil reserves in a bloc that encompasses most of Asia.

US SecDef Chuck Hagel was treated to a tour of China's first aircraft carrier and then bluntly told that "China cannot be contained."  The pivot to Asia is being seen by China as a threat but with Russia probing westward, that pivot might be a little slower and the downsizing US armed forces stretched out all over the world.

Sometimes,the world is a little too interesting....